Smart bets for Apple TV+ games of September 23, 2022

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Tonight features an exciting lineup of two games that will be available exclusively on Apple TV+. We begin with what could be a historic game between the Red Sox and Yankees at 7:05 p.m. ET, with Aaron Judge sitting at 60 homers. Next up are the Cardinals and Dodgers in Los Angeles at 10:10 p.m. ET, when Albert Pujols will swing for career home run No. 699. Let’s take a look at four bets you can get for tonight via the DraftKings Sportsbook tonight to sweat with .

That seems like a low total considering the matchup between Gerrit Cole and Rich Hill. The struggles Cole has endured against the Red Sox are well documented, so why not revisit them? This season against the bitter rival Yankees, Cole has posted a 5.48 ERA, with a .326 wOBA, seven home runs allowed and a 5.20 FIP in four starts. Earlier this month, Cole faced that Red Sox club at Fenway Park and was tagged for four runs on four hits — including three homers — in six innings. This fight has been a struggle for him, and I would expect that to continue tonight.

On the other hand, Rich Hill has yet to face the Yankees this season due to his time on the injured list. He’ll get his first crack tonight, but I wouldn’t expect much here either. Hill doesn’t go deep into games. In 19 of his 23 starts, Hill has gone no more than 5 2/3 innings. In four of his last five starts, the veteran lefty has gone no more than five innings and has allowed a total of 13 runs in that span. Chasing Hill early would give the Yankees several innings against this Red Sox bullpen, which has been one of their weak points all season.

Going over 4.5 runs against the Red Sox has happened often for the Yankees. New York has over 4.5 runs in nine of the clubs’ 15 meetings this year. As I mentioned earlier, I expect Hill to be out of this game early, which means at least three or four innings of the Boston bullpen. That’s usually not a good thing (unless, of course, you have over 4.5 runs for the Yankees). I wouldn’t be surprised if most of the runs he needs come from Hill, as he’s allowed at least four earned runs in eight of his 23 starts. Most of the teams that have tagged him for this damage have done well against lefties, such as the Astros, Braves and Rays.

I wouldn’t be shocked if we see some early offense in this game. Now, to be fair, both starters tonight, Jose Quintana of the Cardinals and Andrew Heaney of the Dodgers, were very good for their respective teams. However, both clubs hit lefties very well. The Cardinals lead the league with a 140 wRC+ against lefties, while the Dodgers are just outside the top 10 at 112. As Quintana has posted a 3.16 ERA, his xERA sits at 3.93. Heaney is another example of this, as his 2.66 ERA is accompanied by a 3.33 xERA.

Both teams were also strong in scoring the over in the entire match in the first five innings. Entering tonight, the Dodgers have a 74-66-10 record with overs through the first five innings, while the Cardinals are 73-67-11. Despite both wings doing well this season, I think both will struggle against very good offenses.

Is tonight the night Pujols pulls in a 700 homer? The match is definitely good for him. Heaney has struggled to limit home runs this season, giving up 1.7 per nine in his 61 innings. In all, he has allowed 12 home runs, 11 of which have come off the bat of a right-handed hitter. Pujols has hit 12 of his 19 home runs off left-handed pitchers, including six on the road. It’s been six games since Pujols hit his last home run, which moved him into sole possession of fourth place on the all-time list. Heaney has historically given up a lot of flies and is hitting 45.7% in 2022. With Pujols’ power against lefties, this could be a big night for “The Machine.”

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